On this page you can carry out forecast accuracy analysis by plan, plan input, and period versus actual demand.
Before you start
You can specify the context of the product data combination that displays using the context selector in the top right of the page.
Steps
To change the data that displays on the page, select an option from the context selectors.
To search for an option, enter a numeric reference ID, alphabetic name, or a partial name in the Find... field.
Edit Parameters (Global) and Effective Parameters (Global)
You can specify parameters in the Edit Parameters (Global) card. The parameters then display in the Effective Parameters (Global) card.
Parameters
| Parameters | Values |
| Forecast Accuracy Units or Revenue | Select Units or Revenue as the basis for forecast accuracy measurement. |
| Forecast Error Basis | The calculation for forecast error is the absolute forecast error divided by the selected divisor. This parameter specifies the divisor used in the calculation:
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| Forecast Accuracy Measure |
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| Lead Time Offset | Specify the number of planning periods to use as the lead time offset for forecast error calculations. For example, for a forecast made for Week 1, selecting a Lead Time Offset of 2 would begin to measure the forecast made in Week 1 from Week 3. For example you can compare actuals of Week 3 with Archived Forecast captured for Week 3, based on the Stored Snapshot of Week 1. |
| Periods To Sum | Specify the number of planning periods to sum in the calculation of MAPE. For example, for a forecast calculated in Week 1, when you select a Lead Time Offset of 2 and Periods To Sum of 3, these parameters measure the forecast made in Week 1 offset to Week 3, and then summed for Week 3, Week 4 and Week 5. |
Performance over Time – Chart and Table
The chart and table display forecast accuracy performance of the consensus plan for each of the inputs (Demand Plan, Commercial Plan, Consensus Plan, and Stat Forecast) by period for the selected product and product-customer records.
Parameters
The chart and table each provide a selector in the bottom left corner of the cards, which enable you to specify the forecast accuracy measure. Note that the selectors are synchronized.
| Parameters | Values |
| Forecast Accuracy Weighted Average (%) | Select this measure to display a weighted average of the forecast accuracy measure selected in the parameters at the top of the page. |
| Forecast Accuracy Simple Average (%) | Select this measure to display the average of the forecast accuracy measure selected in the parameters at the top of the page. |
| Bias (%) | Select this measure to display the bias % of the forecast accuracy measure selected in the parameters at the top of the page. This measure is calculated by error divided by absolute error. |
History vs Forecasts (Offset and Summed) – Chart and Table
The chart and table provide further analysis of the consensus plan performance and each of the inputs (Demand Plan, Commercial Plan, Consensus Plan, Stat Forecast) by period for the selected product and product-customer records. The data that displays in the chart and table is specified in the Edit Parameters (Global) card for the Lead Time Offset and Periods to Sum values and Forecast Accuracy Units or Revenue.
Parameters
| Parameters | Values |
| Base History | The values in this data series are the actual shipment history for the selected product or customer-product. |
| Demand Plan | The values in this data series are derived from the Demand Plan input to the Consensus Plan. |
| Commercial Plan | The values in this data series are derived from the Commercial Plan input to the Consensus Plan. |
| Consensus Plan | The values in this data series are derived from the Final Consensus Plan from the Consensus Planning . |
| Stat Forecast | The values in this data series are derived from the Statistical Forecast input to the Consensus Plan. |
