This page enables you to identify the underlying linear trend and seasonality in historic demand at aggregate level. Decomposition pulls out predicted mean, trend, and seasonality to understand variability.
Before you start
Use the context selectors at the top-right to select a seasonal profile. Additionally, you can manually enter the required value using the search function.
Aggregate Level
In the Select Aggregate Level table, select customer and product combinations from the dropdown. You can set a maximum of three customer and product combinations.
The Year on Year Selected History chart provides a year-on-year comparison of the chained history (demand history). You can hover over the legend to view specific yearly views across a 52-week period. This helps you to review seasonality patterns of demand. The Selected History displays the period from which the application can determine seasonality.
It displays the Effective Adjusted History overlaid with Seasonality Initialization Range for each financial year (CFY: Current Financial Year) to provide a year-on-year view of demand.
- Seasonality Initialization Range: Displays the seasonality initialization range. The analysis considers the product effectivity date and displays the point from which the history is used to determine seasonality.
- Effective Adjusted History: Displays the demand history derived from 132 – History Correction.
The Seasonal Indices measure how a season throughout a cycle compares to the average season.
Note: A minimum of 24 months history is required to detect seasonal trend.
Trend
The chart displays:
| Parameter | Value |
| Residual (U) | Represents what's left in a time series model after fitting a model. |
| Chained History (U) | Represents the Effective Adjusted History overlaid with Seasonality Initialization Range. |
| Trend (U) | Displays the mean of the Trendline. A trend is the general direction of change in a variable over time. Trends can be upward, downward, or flat, and are usually associated with structural causes. |
| Trend (U) *Seasonality | Represents history trend, including seasonality index. |
