This page enables you to review how forecast accuracy and bias are evolving over time, at the product level.

Before you start

Use the right-hand context selector dropdown to select a product and consensus plan combination.

Parameters

The Edit Parameters table displays the globally set parameters:

ParameterValue
Forecast Accuracy Units or RevenueDisplays the forecast accuracy value.
Forecast Error Basis

Displays how the forecast error is calculated. The absolute forecast error is divided by:

  • Actuals: Uses shipment history as the basis for forecast accuracy.
  • Forecast: Divides the forecast error by the forecast. 
  • Minimum Error: Divides the forecast error by either the history or forecast, whichever gives the lowest error. This helps prevent incentivizing behavior that introduces bias into forecasts. 
Forecast Accuracy Measure

Displays the forecast accuracy measure:

  • MAPE: Uses the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value. 
  • Accuracy: Uses the Forecast Accuracy value, defined as 100% minus the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value. 
Lead Time OffsetDisplays the number of planning periods to be used as lead time offset for forecast error calculations. For example, for a forecast made for Week 1, specifying a value of 2 would begin to measure the forecast made in week 1 from week 3.
Periods to SumDisplays the number of planning periods to sum in the calculation of the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value. For example, specifying a Lead Time Offset value of 2 and Periods to Sum value of 3, measures the forecast made in the week 1 offset to week 3, and sums it for weeks 3, 4, and 5.

The Performance Over Time chart displays the weekly forecast accuracy performance of the plan. A context selector in the bottom left corner of the chart allows you to specify the bias.

The History vs Forecasts (Offset and Summed) chart and History vs Forecast Table provide further weekly analysis of the consensus plan performance for the Base History, Plan, and Forecast Accuracy Weighted Average %.