This page enables you to carry out forecast accuracy analysis for a specified date range. You can analyze by plan, plan input, and period against actual demand in both unit and revenue terms. This provides valuable insight into the accuracy of each of the Consensus Plan's inputs. It also gives direction based on the selection by period when creating the plan.

Use the right-hand context selector dropdown to select a product and location combination.

The Forecast Waterfall table displays actual weekly demand.

The Forecast Accuracy Waterfall table displays the weekly forecast accuracy.

The Actuals vs Archived Plans graph displays the weekly Base History, Consensus Plan, and Production Plan values.

Parameters

The Edit Parameters table allows you to set parameters, with the values entered displayed in the Effective Parameters table:

ParameterValue
Archived ForecastSpecify the basis for the data displayed on the page. The options are Demand Plan, Marketing Forecast, Consensus Plan, or Stat Forecast.
Waterfall Start / EndSpecify the start and end of the waterfall analysis period.
Forecast Error Basis

Specify how the forecast error is calculated. The absolute forecast error is divided by:

  • Actuals: The shipment history is used as the basis for forecast accuracy.
  • Forecast: Divides the forecast error by the forecast. 
  • Minimum Error: Divides the forecast error by either the history or forecast, whichever gives the lowest error. This helps prevent incentivizing behavior that introduces bias into forecasts. 
Forecast Accuracy Measure

Specify the forecast accuracy measure:

  • MAPE: Uses the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value. 
  • Accuracy: Uses the Forecast Accuracy value, defined as 100% minus the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value.