This page allows you to review how forecast accuracy and bias are evolving over time, for a production and location combination.

Before you start

Use the context selectors at the top-right to select a location and product combination. Additionally, you can manually enter the required values using the search function.

Forecast Accuracy Charts & Tables

The first chart and table displays the weekly forecast accuracy performance of the Consensus Plan. A context selector at the bottom of the chart and table allows you to specify the forecast accuracy measure.

ParameterValue
Forecast Accuracy Weighted Average (%)Displays a weighted average percentage value of the forecast accuracy measure.
Forecast Accuracy Simple Average (%)Displays an average percentage value of the forecast accuracy measure.
Bias (%)Displays the bias percentage of the forecast accuracy measure. This is calculated by error/absolute error.

Note: If the value is changed in the table, it also changes in the graph. The opposite is true if the value is changed in the graph.

The second chart and table provide period-wise consensus plan performance for the Base History and Consensus Plan.

Parameters

ParameterValue
Forecast Error Basis

Specify how the forecast error is calculated. The absolute forecast error is divided by:

  • Actuals: Uses shipment history as the basis for forecast accuracy.
  • Forecast: Divides the forecast error by the forecast. 
  • Minimum Error: Divides the forecast error by either the history or forecast, whichever gives the lowest error. This helps prevent incentivizing behavior that introduces bias into forecasts. 
Forecast Accuracy Measure

Specify the forecast accuracy measure:

  • MAPE: Uses the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value. 
  • Accuracy: Uses the Forecast Accuracy value, defined as 100% minus the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value. 
Lead Time OffsetSpecify the number of planning periods to be used as lead time offset for forecast error calculations. For example, for a forecast made for Week 1, specifying a value of 2 would begin to measure the forecast made in week 1 from week 3.
Periods to SumSpecify the number of planning periods to sum in the calculation of the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value. For example, specifying a Lead Time Offset value of 2 and Periods to Sum value of 3, measures the forecast made in the week 1 offset to week 3, and sums it for weeks 3, 4, and 5.