Use this page for forecast accuracy reports and analysis by plan, plan input, and period versus actual demand.

Before you start

You can specify the context of the product in D1920H and product-customer in D1921H from the context selectors (top right of the page).

To change the data that displays on the page, select an option from the context selectors.

To search for an option, enter a numeric reference ID, alphabetic name, or a partial name in the Find... field.

Reporting: Forecast Accuracy and Bias - Cust Prod

Parameters

You can confirm the parameters in the Effective Parameters (Global) panel.

ParametersValues
GL Forecast Accuracy Units or RevenueThe option to select units or revenue as the basis for forecast accuracy measurement.
GL Forecast Error Basis

The calculation for forecast error is the absolute forecast error divided by the selected divisor. This parameter specifies the divisor used in the calculation.

  • Actuals: this option uses shipment history as the basis for forecast accuracy.
  • Forecast: this option divides the forecast error by the forecast.
  • Minimum Error: this option divides the forecast error by the either history or the forecast (whichever will give the lowest error). This measure can help to prevent incentivizing behavior that can introduce bias into forecasts.
GL Forecast Accuracy Measure

MAPE: this option specifies forecast accuracy to be measured using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE).

Accuracy: this option specifies forecast accuracy to be measured using Forecast Accuracy (defined as 100% minus MAPE).

GL Lead Time OffsetSpecifies the number of planning periods to be used as lead time offset for forecast error calculations. For example, for a forecast made for Week 1, you can select a Lead Time Offset of 2 to measure the forecast made in Week 1 from Week 3.
GL Periods To Sum

Specifies the number of planning periods to total in the calculation of MAPE.

From the example above, for a forecast calculated in Week 1, you can select a Lead Time Offset of 2 and Periods to Sum of 3 to measure the forecast made in Week 1 offset to Week 3, and then summed for Week 3, Week 4,  and Week 5.

 

History vs Forecasts (Offset and Summed) – Chart and Table

The History vs Forecasts (Offset and Summed) chart and table provide further analysis of the consensus plan performance and each of the inputs (Demand Plan, Commercial Plan, Consensus Plan, and Stat Forecast). You can review the performance by period for the selected product and product-customer records. you can specify the data in the Edit Parameters (Global) panel for Lead Time Offset and Periods to Sum values, and Forecast Accuracy Units or Revenue.

Parameters

ParametersValues

Forecast Accuracy Weighted Average (%)


Displays a weighted average of the forecast accuracy measure you selected in the parameters. 
Forecast Accuracy Simple Average (%)Displays the average of the forecast accuracy measure selected in the parameters at the top of the page.
Bias (%)Displays the bias percentage of the forecast accuracy measure you select in the parameters. We calculate this by error/absolute error.

Steps

To make adjustments, select a parameter from the context selector at the bottom of the chart. 

You can review the changes in the table on the right side.

History vs Forecasts (Offset and Summed) chart

The History vs Forecasts (Offset and Summed) chart provides a graphical view of historical vs forecast values. The chart includes the Base History, Demand Plan, the Commercial Plan, the Concensus Plan  and, the Stat Forecast. 

You can see the values in the table on the right side.